Crude Oil Analysis, Price and Chart
- Brent crude eyes $80.00/bbl.
- OPEC+ meeting abandoned for now.
The latest OPEC+ meeting was called off Monday after the UAE and Saudi Arabia failed to agree on the end date for current production cuts. While the UAE accepted the proposed raising of output by 2 million barrels a day, they argued that their current baseline – from which production cuts are calculated – is too low and needs to be raised. While the meeting ended with no new date agreed for the next assembly, it may be that the two sides can be bought back together soon and a new meeting agreed upon.
Crude oil has been a one-way trade since April 2020 with any pullback used as a buying opportunity. The slump in oil caused by the covid pandemic has been completely reversed as vaccination programs around the globe open up economies further. Brent crude is now at highs last seen in late-October 2018 and is approaching $80.00/bbl. Above here $86.55/bbl is the next target, although this may prove difficult to hit in the short-to-medium term despite the market’s bullish outlook. If a new meeting date is announced, and it may be soon, then oil is likely to fade some of its recent rally before finding a new equilibrium ahead of further gains.
Brent Crude Oil Price Chart (January 2021 – July 6, 2021)
US crude oil is also moving ever higher and IG retail trader data suggest further gains ahead with traders 41.8% net-long.The number of traders net-long is 7.59% higher than yesterday and 22.10% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.43% higher than yesterday and 28.67% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to rise.Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bullish contrarian trading bias.
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