ECB Cheat Sheet: Predictably Unpredictable

Andreas Rentz

By Antoine Bouvet, Benjamin Schroeder, and Francesco Pesole

Scenario analysis - How to position for Lagarde's alternatives

Given the ECB’s strong guidance around a 50bp hike at the March meeting, all our scenarios in this edition of the ECB Cheat Sheet imply a 50bp move, and the degree

Markets see rising financial stability risk as a brake on the ECB's ability to hike

Source: Refinitiv, ING

We'd expect one more peak in EUR yields before the end of this ECB tightening cycle

Source: Refinitiv, ING

Even if contagion risk is still small, the ECB is unlikely to accelerate QT

Source: Refinitiv, ING