- USD/INR is seen consolidating in a narrow band around mid-82.00s on Friday.
- The technical setup favours bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
- A convincing break below the 200- SMA is needed to negate the positive bias.
The USD/INR pair oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Friday and is currently placed around the 82.50 region, nearly unchanged for the day.
From a technical perspective, spot prices, so far, manage to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May rally from the vicinity of the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Against the backdrop of last week’s bounce from the 50% Fibo. level, positive oscillators on the daily chart support prospects for some near-term appreciating move.
That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 82.65 region, before placing fresh bullish bets. The USD/INR pair might then make a fresh attempt to conquer the 83.00 round-figure mark. A sustained strength and acceptance above the latter will confirm a fresh breakout, paving the way for additional gains.
On the flip side, weakness below the 82.40 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, might prompt some technical selling and expose the 82.25 confluence – comprising 50% Fibo. level and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A convincing break below will make the USD/INR pair vulnerable to challenge the 200-day SMA, currently pegged around the 82.00 mark.
The aforementioned handle should act as a pivotal point, which if broken decisively will negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders.
USD/INR daily chart
Key levels to watch