WTI crude oil eyes further downside past $69.00 amid firmer US Dollar, demand-supply jitters


  • WTI bears stay hopeful after returning to the desk from one-week high.
  • US Dollar strength joins IEA forecasts and downbeat EIA weekly Oil inventories to favor Oil sellers.
  • US Retail Sales, more clues on energy market eyed for fresh impulse.

WTI crude oil clings to mild losses near $68.70 amid early Thursday in Europe. In doing so, the black gold suffers from downbeat weekly inventory data, firmer US Dollar and mixed headlines about the energy markets.

That said, a strong surprise build in the weekly Oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), by 7.92 million barrels (M) versus hopes of witnessing a draw of 0.51M and -0.451M prior, weigh on the WTI at a first place.

Following that, the upbeat FOMC Economic Projections and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech renewed the hawkish Fed bias and exert downside pressure on the energy benchmark.

Furthermore, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that “global oil demand will grow by 2.4 million bpd this year, to a record 102.3 million bpd.” However, a lead US bank, namely JP Morgan, cuts its Oil price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 in the latest release. It should be noted that JP Morgan revised its average Brent price forecast for 2023 to $81 per barrel from $90 earlier, and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $76 a barrel from $84 previously.

“JPMorgan cut its oil price forecasts for this year and 2024 as it sees global supply growth offsetting a record rise in demand, while inventory build-up lowers the risk of price spikes,” per Reuters.

Elsewhere, downbeat prints of China Retail Sales and Industrial Production joined upbeat US Dollar Index (DXY) prints to keep the Oil bears hopeful.

That said, energy traders should pay attention to the sentiment as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Retail Sales trade tall to shake the markets. Should the risk-off mood intensifies, the WTI may have more to lose.

Technical analysis

A bullish triangle formation restricts immediate moves of the WTI crude oil between $67.10 and $70.00. That said, energy bears seem running out of steam ahead of key data/events, per the dicey oscillators.